Tooth and tail commanders8/3/2023 Indeed, there have been reports that some units are close to mutiny – not just frontline troops, but across senior levels of the military as well.Ĭlearly, this supply challenge may have less to do with the rasputitsa, and more to do with Russian internal politics. These forces are even worse equipped and supported than the average Russian conscript, with commanders taking to social media to complain about the lack of equipment and munitions. Wagner Group forces have been leading the offensive in the region and taking devastating losses. While Bakhmut is within the reach of Russian forces, it doesn’t mean the logistics problem is solved. It is not good to be predictable – as the reported casualty ratio of one defender to seven attackers makes fairly clear. There are few places along the front line where Russia can move enough resources to attack. The Russian problem with logistics, compounded by both an icy winter and now a spring thaw, forces them into repetitive and predictable patterns. When the going is bad, these constraints become even more pronounced. Its limited inventory of supply vehicles struggles to replenish ammunition, food and fuel at the rates they are expended. This means it has fewer support staff serving its combat troops than, say, the US military, which can make it hard to keep frontline soldiers supplied.Ĭritically, Russia lacks the capacity to sustain operations at any real distance from its depots and rail networks. Russia’s military has always struggled with logistics, due in part to its relatively narrow “ tooth-to-tail” ratio. For every soldier on the front line, there should be several providing support, moving supplies and fulfilling other vital services. Modern combat operations are hungry, requiring vast amounts of resources to sustain. It is one of the few places along the front line that Russia can effectively supply in inclement weather, which is why it has been under attack throughout the winter and now into the spring. Bakhmut is relatively accessible from the Russian perspective, being fairly close to railheads and accessible by road. Given the state of the ground, it is not surprising that Russia is struggling to supply much of its front line, with massing resources and troops for an assault impossible along much of its 600-mile length.Īccordingly, Russian forces are focusing on the points they can reach and realistically assault. And it may be that the emphasis that Russia is placing on Bakhmut has more to do with its convenience from a logistical perspective than its material value to either side. It’s fair to say that weather conditions undoubtedly contributed to Russian failures early in the war.Ī year on and mud is again constricting Russian action. The risk of getting bogged down off-road contributed to Russia’s decision to send lengthy columns of tanks and other armour advancing along main roads towards the capital, on which the Ukrainians able to inflict heavy losses. The wet conditions, along with the poor state of Russia’s land forces caused Russia’s initial push for Kyiv last year to be conducted along major highways. There is little need to look at distant history to understand the significance of spring weather conditions, however. It blunted the Soviet counter-offensives of the subsequent year. In the past, rasputitsa spelled disaster for the Mongols, Napoleon’s grand army, and even played a pivotal role in the second world war, slowing the German push towards Moscow in 1941. The spring thaw has historically dictated the pace of military campaigns in the region. The spring thaw, or rasputitsa, brings mud and rain, restricting freedom of manoeuvre and confining most movement to main roads and rail networks. With Vladimir Putin’s special operation having lasted a year already, Russia’s war machine is again encountering the same conditions that frustrated its initial advances back in 2022. Wave after wave of Russian forces have been thrown into the same sector of the frontline, with a heavy cost being paid for modest progress. While the city itself has some (limited) strategic significance as a regional transport hub, neither its symbolic nor material value justifies the price that Russia is paying. With winter coming to a close in Ukraine, Russia is making a series of advances in the eastern Donbas region, with a primary aim of capturing the city of Bakhmut.
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